Matter of Stats

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2016 - Round 16 Results - On Balance: Disappointing

Though the Dons gave Investors (once again) false hope of an unlikely profit on the weekend, the eventual 2.6c loss for the Overall Portfolio was probably a fair reflection of the round.

The Head-to-Head Fund was the major contributor to the loss, shedding 6.5c on a 1 from 4 performance, though even the usually reliable Line Fund struggled this week, dropping 3.6c in value on a 2 from 4 performance, its first loss since Round 12. Still, it's up by almost 37c on the season, so it's difficult to hold a grudge against the Fund.

One encouraging aspect of the weekend's wagering was the performance of the Overs/Unders Fund. which landed 4 from 4, giving it a 14 and 1 record over the past three rounds. It's now up by 19c on the season, which is a much better result than I was expecting at the start of the season and, especially, about eight rounds into it.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

MoSSBODS informs the three MoS Funds, and its relatively poor performance unsurprisingly mirrors that of, at least, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds.

In the form of a Head-to-Head Tipster, MoSSBODS_Marg tipped only five correct results, surrendering its two tip lead over BKB in the process. That left it and BKB now tied atop the Leaderboard on 101 from 135 (75%).

Overall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.1 from 9, with the best performances of 7 registered by BKB, the two ENS Tipsters, and the two RSMP Tipsters. The worst score of 4 from 9 was registered by Home Sweet Home. Only 62% of home teams have won so far this season.

MoSSBODS_Marg also struggled, producing the round's worst mean absolute error (MAE) of 32.1 points per game, about 4.5 points per game higher than the all-Predictor average of 27.6, and over 6 points per game higher than MoS' best Predictor's (ENS_Linear) figure of 25.8 points per game.

C_Marg only barely broke an MAE of 30 but still heads the Leaderboard, though now by just under 46 points from Bookie_LPSO. RSMP_Simple remains in 3rd place, a little over a further 1 point back.

As you can see from the chart, MoSSBODS_Marg has slipped to 2nd-last, its lowest ranking of the season, though it is only a fraction of a point behind Bookie_3.

To complete the round's misery for the MoSSBODS family, MoSSBODS_Prob returned the round's only negative probability score, the first such score recorded by any Head-to-Head Probability Predictor since Round 2.

C_Prob also had a relatively poor round, and slipped into 2nd place behind Bookie_LPSO.