Based on the traffic to the MatterOfStats website today, I'm guessing that many regular visitors already know that the first four-ninths of Round 1 of the 2014 season has proven to be profitable for anyone holding the Recommended Portfolio.

The Head-to-Head Fund recorded two successful wagers from two attempts, most notably recognising the now-obvious value that subsisted in the Giants' $13 pre-game price-tag. This Fund is now up by over 9c on the season and is comfortably buttressed against a relatively extended period of ineptitude. The Line Fund also benefited from the Giants' strong showing, its wager with over 8 goals start never seeming to be seriously in danger.

Only the Margin Fund finished the weekend unfulfilled, with both of its Blues'-related wagers coming up short despite promising signs at the end of the first three quarters. It shed 2.5c as a consequence of its poor judgement.

So, all told, the Recommended Portfolio is up by almost 3c after just four games and never have I felt more compelled to remind myself that extrapolation almost always ends in tears.

On the tipping front, Home Sweet Home is enjoying a very rare period of relative accuracy, its 2 from 4 as good as any of the MatterOfStats (MOS) Head-to-Head Tipsters. It too, I suspect, should take heed of the pitfalls in extrapolation.

In other MOS contests, H2H_Unadj_3 leads all-comers amongst the Margin Predictors, although its 42.23 mean absolute prediction error is a long way from elevating it into MOS folklore, and H2H_Adj and H2H_Unadj have, jointly, the best Head-to-Head Probability Predictor performances.

As well, the Line Fund algorithm is enjoying a very rare period of net positive log probability scoring.

Of course, I'd do well to remember that five-ninths of a round is a long time in football ...