Matter of Stats

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2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are: 

  • Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
  • Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
  • St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
  • GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40