Matter of Stats

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2012 MARS, Colley and Massey Ratings After Round 5

The Cats, currently eighth on the ladder, are now ranked 1st on MARS Ratings, which would seem to make MARS nothing if not loyal - perhaps nothing except loyal.

Remarkably, seven teams currently carry Ratings in excess of 1,015, a fact made even more notable by the realisation that the average team Rating is now only about 994, not 1,000 as in previous seasons, due to the diluting effect of rating GWS as a 900 team at the start of the season. 

In rising to the top of MARS Ratings, Geelong leaped over Carlton and Hawthorn, whose losses saw them fall to 2nd and 4th places respectively.

Other teams to shift places were the Eagles, up a spot to 3rd despite an unchanged Rating and an unconvincing win over the Tigers, and the Swans and the Saints, which traded 6th and 7th position between them.

No other team, including all those ranked 8th and lower, changed Ratings ladder spots.

Nine teams remain Rated above 1,000, and one more, Fremantle, is Rated above the all-team average of 994.

West Coast is the team that's accumulated most Ratings Points (RPs) since the start of the season, up almost 12 RPs over the first 5 rounds, though it grabbed more than 9 of those RPs in its first two games.

Nine more teams have registered net RP gains, chief amongst them the Swans (up almost 10 RPs), Carlton (up over 9 RPs), and Essendon (up over 8 RPs).

The remaining eight teams have each suffered RP declines, which range in size from the moderate losses of Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Geelong (all under 3 RPs) to the more substantial losses of the newcomer Suns and the oldcomer Dees (both over 15 RPs).

It's interesting to note that the top 8 teams based on RP gains all come from the top 9 positions on the Competition Ladder, Geelong being the odd team out, lying 8th on the Ladder but having shed almost 3 RPs.

Despite this decline, as noted the Cats now sit 1st on the MARS Rating Ladder. This assessment of the Cats is not shared by the Colley or Massey Rating Systems. Colley Ratings have Geelong as only the 9th highest rated team, while Massey rates them 8th. The truth, I'd contend, as so often in life where you're faced with strong but divergent opinions, lies somewhere in between.

Other significant differences amongst the MARS, Colley and Massey Ratings where MARS Ratings are the exception are for Collingwood, rated 5th by MARS, 7th by Colley, and 9th by Massey; Fremantle, rated 10th by MARS but 5th by Colley and Massey; St Kilda, rated 7th by MARS, 11th by Colley and 10th by Massey; and for Sydney, rated 6th by MARS, 2nd by Massey, and 1st by Colley.

Teams for which it's Colley that's the greatest fan are Adelaide, rated 6th by Colley, 13th by Massey, and 11th by MARS; and Essendon, rated 4th by Colley, 9th by MARS, and 7th by Massey.