Matter of Stats

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MatterOfStats 2020 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

Tony Corke

The final Ranking on Team Dashboard Metrics table appears below, and shows that teams’ final competition ladder positions differ most from their rankings on individual metrics as follows:

  • Port Adelaide (1st on the ladder): 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 6th on Q1 and Q3 performances, and 7th on Q4 performances

  • Brisbane Lions (2nd on the ladder): 18th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 7th on Goals and Points Conceded, and 11th on Q4 performances

  • Richmond (3rd on the ladder): 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and 9th on Q4 performances

  • Geelong (4th on the ladder): 10th on Q2 performances

  • West Coast (5th on the ladder): 10th on Own Scoring Shots, 11th on Q2 performances, 15th on Q4 performances, and 11th on Percent of Quarters Won

  • St Kilda (6th on the ladder): 12th on Q3 performances

  • Western Bulldogs (7th on the ladder): (Between 4th and 11th on every metric)

  • Collingwood (8th on the ladder): 1st on Scoring Shots Conceded, 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 13th on Own Goals and Points, 3rd on Opponent Points, 3rd on Q1 performances, and 14th on Q2 performances

  • Melbourne (9th on the ladder): 17th on Q3 performances, and 2nd on Q4 performances

  • GWS (10th on the ladder): 15th on Q1 performances, and 4th on Q3 performances

  • Carlton (11th on the ladder): 3rd on Q4 performances

  • Fremantle (12th on the ladder): 18th on Scoring Shots Generated, 6th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 4th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 4th on Goals Conceded, and 5th on Points Conceded

  • Essendon (13th on the ladder): 7th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and 18th on Q1 performances

  • Gold Coast (14th on the ladder): 9th on Own Scoring Shot Generation, and 2nd on Q2 performances

  • Hawthorn (15th on the ladder): 5th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and 9th on Own Goals Scored

  • Sydney (16th on the ladder): 4th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 6th on Q2 performances

  • North Melbourne (17th on the ladder): 8th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 12th on Q4 performances

  • Adelaide (18th on the ladder): (Between 14th and 18th on every metric)

In terms of which Dashboard metrics were most correlated with final ladder position, we have, based on rank correlations:

  • Expected Wins (according to the MoS Win Prediction Function): +0.94

  • % of Quarters Won and Own Points Scored: +0.91

  • Own Goals Scored: +0.87

  • Scoring Shots Generated and Scoring Shots Conceded: Both +0.86

  • Points Conceded: +0.85

  • Q1 Performances: +0.84

  • Goals Conceded: +0.83

  • Q3 Performances: +0.76

Least correlated were:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: -0.02

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.09

  • Q4 Performances: +0.55

  • Q2 Performances: +0.56

The full Team Dashboard appears next, and reveals that:

  • Port Adelaide scored exactly 1 point more than Brisbane Lions

  • Geelong scored the most goals and points of any team

  • Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide scored the most behinds

  • Fremantle conceded only 4 more goals than Port Adelaide

  • Collingwood conceded only 95 behinds all season

  • Adelaide, Essendon, and North Melbourne were outscored by their opponents in all four quarters

  • Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Richmond outscored their opponents in all four quarters

  • Gold Coast and Sydney won less than one-quarter of their Q4s

  • North Melbourne won less than one-quarter of their Q3s

  • Port Adelaide won more than three-quarters of their Q2s

  • Geelong scored 56% of their points and GWS 57% of their points in the second half of games

  • Western Bulldogs won only one fewer quarters than Brisbane Lions, and the same number that Carlton won

And, finally, here’s the team-by-team quarter-by-quarter stats table.

Here we see that:

  • Sydney’s conversion rate dropped from 66% to 40% from Q1 to Q4

  • GWS’s conversion rate climbed from 40% to 60% from Q1 to Q4

  • St Kilda averaged more points in Q1s than any other team

  • Brisbane Lions averaged more points in Q2s than any other team

  • Geelong averaged more points in Q3s and in Q4s than any other team

  • Hawthorn conceded more points in Q1s than any other team

  • Carlton conceded more points in Q2s than any other team

  • North Melbourne conceded more points in Q3s than any other team

  • Adelaide conceded more points in Q4s than any other team