Matter of Stats

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MatterOfStats 2024 : Team Dashboard for Round 9

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

  • Percent of Quarters Won (+0.87)

  • The MoS Win Production Function (+0.84)

  • Own Points per Game (+0.81)

  • Own Goals per Game (+0.81)

  • Q3 Performances (+0.79)

  • Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.78)

Least highly correlated are:

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.35)

  • Q2 Performances (+0.4)

  • Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.41)

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.43)

Overall, arguably, the the Western Bulldogs’ and Essendon’s rankings look least congruent with their ladder positions, especially when you look at what the MoS Win Production Function suggests for their expected win rates given their scoring statistics.

And, here is the larger Team Dashboard, which reveals that:

  • Western Bulldogs, despite sitting 11th on the ladder, rank 3rd on Goals scored

  • Adelaide’s opponents have converted at only 43%, and Sydney’s at 45%

  • Sydney have won 27 quarters this season, which is 5 more than any other team

  • North Melbourne have won only four quarters this season (and drawn none)

  • Geelong have generated fewer scoring shots than their opponents have in Q4s. They’ve won only 50% of them and have a percentage of just 110.

  • Essendon have generated fewer scoring shots than their opponents have in Q1s, Q2s, and Q3s, and have sub-100 percentages for Q2s and Q3s.

  • Hawthorn have outscored their opponents in Q2s, but been outscored by their opponents in every other quarter

  • Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter

  • The only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter are Geelong, Sydney, and Western Bulldogs.

  • Brisbane Lions have scored 61% of their points in 1st halfs and conceded 59% in 2nd halfs. They’ve converted at only 27% in Q3s

  • Melbourne have scored 61% of their points in 2nd halfs

  • Carlton’s opponents have converted at over 70% in Q1s

  • West Coast and Western Bulldogs have converted at 66% or higher in Q1s.