Matter of Stats

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MatterOfStats 2017 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

The latest Team Dashboard appears below, and this week we'll be looking once again at the MoS Win Production Function and the difference between teams' actual win percentages and the percentages their scoring statistics suggest might be expected.

We find that:

  • Fremantle have won 1.8 games more than might be expected
  • Hawthorn have won 1.6 games more than might be expected
  • Richmond have won 1.4 games more than might be expected
  • Western Bulldogs have won 1.1 games more than might be expected
  • Brisbane Lions have won 0.8 games more than might be expected
  • GWS and St Kilda have won 0.7 games more than might be expected
     
  • Port Adelaide have won 2.4 games fewer than might be expected
  • Kangaroos have won 1.8 games fewer than might be expected
  • Essendon have won 1.4 games fewer than might be expected
  • Sydney have won 1.3 games fewer than might be expected
  • Adelaide and Collingwood have won 0.8 games fewer than might be expected

Based on those expectations, the teams ranked most differently on the competition ladder relative to what their scoring statistics imply are:

  • Fremantle: 3 places higher than would be expected
  • Richmond: 2 places higher than would be expected
     
  • Port Adelaide: 3 places lower than would be expected
  • Essendon and Kangaroos: 2 places lower than would be expected

(Generally, the differences between actual and expected wins, and between actual and expected ladder positions have shrunk since we last looked at them after Round 16.)