Matter of Stats

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Are V/AFL Scores (Still) Like Snowflakes?

Tony Corke

Almost 10 years ago I wrote a blog that, among other things, noted that the score progressions - the goals.behinds numbers at the end of each quarter for both teams - were unique for every game ever played, regardless of the order in which you considered the two teams’ score progressions, home first then away, or away first and then home, choosing at random for every game. At that point, the statement was true for 14,490 games.

It seemed pretty startling then but, as of the end of 2024’s Round 9, the statement is STILL true, and that’s now for 16,487 games. V/AFL games remain as snowflake-like as ever.

WHAT ABOUT ONLY TO THREE-QUARTER TIME?

It’s also true, perhaps even remarkably, if you only use the scores at the ends of Quarters 1, 2 and 3. Snowflakes even then.

TO HALF TIME?

As noted in the earlier piece, if we just look at Quarters 1 and 2, we do get repeats - 64 then and 92 now - the latest repeat being the 2024 Round 6 game where Gold Coast went {4.4, 6.8} and Hawthorn {1.4, 3.4}, which mirrored the 1930 R13 game where Geelong went {4.4, 6.8} and Essendon {1.4, 3.4}.

COMMON SCORELINES AT THE END OF EACH QUARTER

Quarter 1

Looking next at just end Q1 scores we have 1,624 quarter-time scorelines that have been repeated (up from 1,557), 21 of which (up from just 5) have occurred now 50 or more times, including

  • {2.4} v {2.3} - 74 times

  • {3.3} v {3.2} - 70 times

  • {2.3} v {2.2} - 68 times

  • {3.3} v {2.2} - 68 times

  • {3.2} v {2.2} - 66 times

  • {3.3} v {2.1} - 65 times

The most recent 2.4 to 2.3 scoreline at quarter time occurred in Round 23 of lseason 2023 when Fremantle started {2.4} to Port Adelaide’s {2.3}.

There have also been 723 quarter-time scorelines that have appeared only once (down from 730). Perhaps surprisingly, three of those have come in Season 2024:

  • Round 8: Geelong 5.2 v Carlton 2.8

  • Round 8: Port Adelaide 1.8 v St Kilda 3.3

  • Round 10: Carlton 5.0 v Melbourne 0.0

Quarter 2

Now 17 (up from seven) scorelines have appeared on more than 15 occasions, including

  • {6.6} v {6.5} - 22 times

  • {5.6} v {5.4} - 21 times

  • {6.7} v {6.6} - 20 times

  • {6.7} v {5.6} - 20 times

  • {5.8} v {5.6} - 19 times

  • {7.6} v {7.5} - 19 times

  • {7.8} v {5.4} - 18 times

  • {6.5} v {5.5} - 18 times

  • {6.8} v {5.6} - 18 times

Exactly 3,421 (up from 3,319) games (or about 21%) have produced a unique half-time scoreline, including five games from the most recent completed round at the time of writing (Round 9 of 2024).

Quarter 3

Only five scorelines have appeared in 10 games or more:

  • {9.9} v {8.12} - 10 times

  • {12.11} v {7.8} - 10 times

  • {9.10} v {7.8} - 10 times

  • {8.11} v {8.7} - 10 times

  • {10.9} v {10.8} - 10 times

The most recent game with one of those scorelines at 3QT was a Round 23 match in 2023 where Geelong 10.9 led Port Adelaide 10.8.

Of the 16,487 games, 7,124 or about 43% (up from 6,827) have produced a unique scoreline at three-quarter time, including four games from the most recent completed round at the time of writing (Round 9 of 2024).

Quarter 4

There are now 33 scorelines (up from 14) that have appeared in 5 games or more, but only three in 6 games:

  • {14.15} v {10.11} - 6 times

  • {18.14} v {11.12} - 6 times

  • {18.12} v {11.13} - 6 times

The most recent game with one of those scorelines at fulltime was a Round 5 match in 2023 where Richmond 11.12 lost to Sydney 18.14.

Of the 16,487 games, 10,252 or about 62% (up from 9,534) have produced a unique scoreline at fulltime, including five games from the most recent completed round at the time of writing (Round 9 of 2024).

SUMMARY

The continued uniqueness of VFL/AFL scores can be summarised as follows:

  • Every game played so far has been unique in terms of the scores of the two teams at the end of the first three quarters (and, consequently, at the end of all four quarters).

  • Only 92 scorelines for the two teams as at the end of Quarters 1 and 2 have been duplicated. That means about 99% of games have produced a unique scoreline for Quarters 1 and 2.

  • Only 723 games (or about 4%) have produced a unique scoreline at the end of the first quarter.

  • Exactly 3,421 games (or about 21%) have produced a unique half-time scoreline.

  • Exactly 7,124 games (or about 42%) have produced a unique three-quarter time scoreline.

  • Exactly 10,252 games (or about 62%) have produced a unique full time scoreline.