MoSHBODS now has Geelong as the narrowest of favourites for the Flag, just ahead of Hawthorn, as shown in the chart below that are based on 10,000 simulations using the latest MoSHBODS Ratings and show how likely it is that each team goes out in a certain week, and who they are most likely to go out to if they do.

(It also shows which teams they are most likely to defeat in the Grand Final when that is their outcome.)

Geelong makes the Grand Final in just over 70% of replicates and takes the Flag in just under one-third of all replicates, which makes their current market prices of $1.85 for making the Grand Final and $4.20 for winning it, quite attractive.

Next most often to make the Grand Final is Sydney who do so in just under 50% of replicates, but they take the Flag in only 18% of replicates, going in as heavily underdogs should they make it against Brisbane Lions or Hawthorn, and mild underdogs against GWS.

Hawthorn, at just 40% is the third most likely team to play in the Grand Final but they, in contrast to Sydney, win over three-quarters of the Grand Finals they make, going in as particularly strong favourites against GWS, but also healthy favourites against Geelong and Brisbane Lions. They too are attractive propositions at $3.50 to make the Grand Final and $6.50 to win it.

For the three remaining teams we have the Lions making the Grand Final in 18% of replicates and winning about half of them, Port Adelaide making the Grand Final in 13% of replicates and winning a bit over 5% of the time, and GWS making the Grand Final is 11% of replicates and winning a bit under 4% of the time.

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS

Finally, here are the estimated probabilities for each of the 9 possible Grand Final pairings, which range in value from about 2-in-9 to less than 1-in-250.

Geelong figures in the three most-likely pairings with, in order, Sydney (35%), Hawthorn (27%), Port Adelaide (9%). After that comes Brisbane Lions and Sydney (8.5%), Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn (7%), Sydney and GWS (5.5%), Hawthorn and GWS (4%), Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide (2%), and lastly GWS and Port Adelaide (1.5%)