Perhaps never more than this year, have assumptions about the effects on teams’ chances of where Finals are being played been more important.

And, as I’ve talked about in this blog, MoSHBODS is now very upbeat about the Cats’ prospects at the Gabba, and this is very much reflected in the latest simulations (using the methodology as discussed in this blog).

RESULTS

In the first chart we look at the estimated probabilities for each of the 8 Finalists going out in a particular week of the Finals.

As you can see, Geelong are now heavy favourites based on the latest simulations, partly because they are the highest rated team, but also because they will now, potentially, play both their remaining games at the Gabba.

The increase in their chances has come partly at the expense of Richmond’s chances, but mostly at the expense of the Lions’ and Power’s.

Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions, between them, now account for the winner in about 2 simulation replicates in 5. Richmond for about 1 in 16, and Geelong for just over 1 in 2.

As you can see from the table above, both Brisbane Lions and Geelong are assessed as more likely to win than lose a Grand Final, whichever of them makes it, while Port Adelaide and Richmond are both considered more likely to finish as Runner Up.

Lastly, let’s look at what the replicates reveal about possible Grand Final matchups.

A Port Adelaide v Geelong Grand Final now accounts for almost 50% of replicates, a Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide matchup about 23%, a Geelong v Richmond pairing about 20%, and a Richmond v Brisbane Lions duo only about 10%.

As always, YMMV.