In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 10 and project the outcomes for the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

These results suggest that:

• North Melbourne are heavy favourities to win the Grand Final, with Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Adelaide all roughly equal second favourites but most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final.

• Richmond and Fremantle are most likely to go out in a Semi Final, and Essendon and Port Adelaide in an Elimination Final.