Matter of Stats

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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Unders/Overs

UPDATE 11:40AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS in interested in two of today’s three games and has taken:

  • North Melbourne v Sydney: 0.9% u79.5 @ $1.87

  • GWS v Adelaide: 0.9% u73.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 3:30PM SATURDAY

… and two more in two games for WoSHBODS:

  • Brisbane v Gold Coast: 2.1% o76.5 @ $1.90

  • Fremantle v Carlton: 1.5% u69.5 @ $1.90

UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY

I think we all knew that WoSHBODS’ restraint was only ever going to be temporary, and it is, indeed, firing wagers in both of the games for which Totals are up. It has:

  • Hawthorn v West Coast: 3.1% o77.5 @ $1.87

  • Richmond v Geelong: 0.2% u73.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 11AM FRIDAY

Just in case you’ve been wondering about the lack of an unders/overs post this week, the reason’s been that WoSHBODS, in stark contrast to last week, has found no value in anything so far on offer.

The estimated overlays in the first four games of the round have been 0.02, 1.7, 1.5, and 0.04 points, which, when assessed at the prices offered, has resulted in -EV in every case.

Perhaps tomorrow …